Construction tender inflation slows to 2.5% in 2025 as Dublin prices flatline
Commercial build cost growth at five-year low with 1% rise in second half of 2025
17 February 2026 | editor@irishrealestate.news
Commercial construction tender prices increased by 2.5% nationally in 2025, marking the lowest annual rate of growth since 2020, according to the latest Tender Price Index published by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland.
The index shows prices rose by 1% in the second half of 2025, down from 1.5% in the first six months of the year. The full-year increase of 2.5% compares with 3% in 2024 and 11.5% in 2022, when construction inflation peaked amid post-pandemic disruption and supply chain shocks.
The SCSI index, which tracks commercial building projects predominantly valued above €1m, indicates that the pace of inflation has now stabilised following several years of volatility. The report, based on a January 2026 survey of chartered quantity surveyors, found that 58% of respondents believe the market is in a mid-upswing or at peak in material prices, while 19.8% consider it to be in an early downswing or at the bottom of the cycle.
Regionally, the second half of 2025 saw no median increase in tender prices in Dublin or in Leinster excluding Dublin. Munster recorded a 1.5% rise, while Connacht/Ulster saw a 1.8% increase over the same period. On an annual basis, Connacht/Ulster recorded the strongest growth at 3.8%, followed by Munster at 3.5%, Dublin at 1% and Leinster excluding Dublin at 0.5%.
The index itself has continued to edge upwards in nominal terms, reaching 222.6 in the second half of 2025, up from 220.4 in the first half of the year, as shown in the national time series table published in the report.
Commentary from survey respondents points to a return to more predictable market conditions. SCSI Vice President Tomás Kelly said the recent trend reflects “a stabilisation and a return to business as usual” after the disruption of recent years. He added that this presents opportunities for Government investment in a market supported by a strong public capital programme.
However, geopolitical risk remains a watchpoint. The report notes concerns that international uncertainty could impact foreign direct investment, particularly from US investors, although overall activity levels are expected to remain supported by public spending.
Looking ahead, 69% of surveyors anticipate further increases in tender prices in the first half of 2026, while 25% expect prices to remain unchanged and 6% foresee a decrease.
The SCSI notes that the index applies to commercial new-build projects, generally valued above €1m, and should be used as a guide rather than a project-specific pricing tool.
